Wade-ing In

Just as many times as I read Bill Simmons and say "Man, he's saying just what I'm thinking!", I am also quite sure that he is completely wrong. It's what made his book ultimately too exhausting for me to finish, and I think I've finally narrowed down the problem. When looking at NBA trends, shifts in basketball hoodoo and the way people are appearing on the grand stage, he's unmatched. When it comes to evaluating actual players and how teams work, he is more often so blinded (somewhat self-deprecatingly so) by his own prejudices, Celtics upbringing and skittering-instead-of-throrough thinking, that he is just out of the bounds of reality.

A great example is his recent article about Lebron James and Dwayne Wade and the new Heat. While making a great gut-feeling evaluation about the atmospherics on the floor, of the seeming joylessness of the team and their rough transition from beloved to hated, he makes an essential misjudgment about the actual basketball dynamics. He claims that the only way that team can win is if Wad realizes that Lebron is just better, and agrees to be his secondary player. It's stunning how quickly Simmons can pivot from the thoughtful to the completely inane. There are several levels at which this is completely off-base, the most obvious being what Wade did to prove him wrong in the 2nd and 3rd games of the season.

Playing Hoarse

Oh man...Wednesday was probably one of the top sports nights of my life...We watched the Giants game at Oracle (they opened early) in a little side area, surrounded by an ever-growing group of fans who, by the 5th inning were chanting loudly, and screaming our brains out. Meanwhile, shootarounds were happening just below, and the opening day excitement was growing. Brain felt nearly torn in half at times. In fact, we didn't make it to our seats until half way through the second quarter, and Monta already had 20 points! We finally decided it was ok to leave with the 9th inning, and a 7 run lead. We stopped for a hot dog, and on our way in, saw that Texas had already scored a run and had 2 on with no outs. Come on, let us watch some fucking basketball! We watched for a sec, as Ramon finally got an out, then went inside and watched the rest of the 2nd quarter while refreshing scores on our iphones. Meanwhile, on the court, wait a minute...a rag tag team of castoffs with a couple brilliant homegrown talents from the Bay Area was scoring at will against a defensive-minded team from Texas...wha??? Where am I?

There was a sequence in the fourth quarter with Curry and Monta going off simultaneously that just left you breathless. Holy shit. Curry hit about three of the prettiest jumpers you'll ever see, with increasing levels of difficulty, stole the ball, dished to Monta, drove for a great layup and then Monta took over and hit two nearly impossible shots. You had a feeling like, maybe the reason Monta thought they couldn't play together is because nothing like this has ever happened before. There just may not be a precedent for two guards like this, and suddenly it clicked in his mind that maybe that wasn't a problem. Maybe it was going to drive opponents bezonkers. Watching the Warriors right now is as exciting as it's ever been for me. Like the Giants, they made a thrilling run a few years ago with a bunch of players who were brought from other places. An exciting and improbable first round victory, but nonetheless, this is different. Monta, Curry and Biedrins are Warriors from the beginning. Lee is still young, just blossoming. That core is basically our team for the forseeable future, and we're gonna get to watch them discover who they are under a new coach, a new ownership team. And Curry and Monta have nearly limitless potential. Again, like the Giants' run, you get the sense that being able to say you saw Monta and Curry in those first couple years will be something touched with awe for grandchildren. They scored 73 points between the two of them on opening night. Curry had 11 assists. Monta was 16-24. That's the baseline.

And as for the Giants, yeah, what can you say at this point? I finally had settled myself in for understanding what to expect from the Giants. A couple runs, some intense pitching, a huge hit and that's all she wrote. Now that they've scored 8 runs on the best pitcher in postseason history, it almost hurts. Like, oh my god, we have to hope for that too now? On Freddy's last hit, I actually fell to my knees, asking for mercy...is this possible? Do we have to take our fandom to yet another level? I don't know if my psyche can handle it!

Suffice it to say, that last night was beautiful. I still get shivers thinking about it. I actually think many people here would openly weep if the Giants won the series. When I saw them in their first playoff run at Pac Bell park, against the Mets, and JT Snow hit the game-tying 3-run homer that just crawled over the fence in left field, amongst the jumping and screaming I saw a man actually weeping behind me. Of course, we'd all be weeping the next inning when the Mets went back ahead and won, but still. That was nothing compared to a World Series, with these guys, now. For the first time I've actually had to confront the possibility that they might win this thing. I haven't, I don't think, allowed myself to dwell for even a moment on them going any farther than each round they've been in. But the winner of game 1 of the World Series has won 6 of the last seven series', and beating Cliff Lee is just a devastating blow. Doesn't mean the Giants are going to win by any means, they are certainly no sure thing, but the POSSIBILITY they might win is finally undeniable. I can no longer exclude it from my mind, which kinda sucks. Like the most beautiful woman in your class finally taking a long, luscious look at you and you finallly realize she might actually be interested but now that means you have to believe and maybe get hurt and say something stupid and oh my god.

Um, this game tomorrow might be worth watching

A quote after the Magic beat the Wizards by nearly 40 points:

"Honestly, I'm sick of listening every hour about Miami -- Miami that, how great they are, how big they are, what kind of record they gonna have," said backup center Marcin Gortat, who had eight points and seven rebounds. "I get every day interviews back in Poland, people calling me about Miami, Miami, what you think about Miami? What you think about Big Three? I'm going to say the same thing: they are a great team, they have three superstars, they got a couple good role players on the team.
"They looking good on the paper, but they got to start winning."

A new era

Well, watched a good portion of Miami vs Boston and a bit of Houston vs Lakers to celebrate the start of NBA season, which really gets underway tomorrow with Dino and I at the Oracle after being tortured by the Giants for a couple hours!

A couple random thoughts...

Firstly, Miami looked almost exactly like Cleveland to me. I know they all have to play together more, and Wade has to get into game shape and all that, but it really felt eerily similar. Good, scrappy defense, no real offensive flow, and the revelation that any team is going to be at least close at the end with Lebron. They really put a scare into Boston after looking dead in the water to start, but ultimately the Celtics dragged a win from the swamp of fairly ugly basketball. I imagine at some point we'll start oooing and ahhing at the Heat, but this wasn't one of those nights. Perhaps when they play the Wizards, or someone else that doesn't match up so perfectly with them.

Also, I was really baffled by Rondo's play. I think that dude is seriously altered in the head. He's so immensely talented, and yet I think, like Artest, that part of his edge comes from being erratic. There is not a player on the Heat who can come close to slowing him down, and yet he was remarkably passive. I mean, it's hard to call a 17 assist game passive, but a lot of those assists came from just dealing to Ray Allen off of screens. Part of that was Wade playing defending him from about 20 feet sagged under the basket, but I also wondered about the psychology of being cut from the FIBA team. Is he sulking? Or perhaps confidence hurt? In fact, why WAS he cut from the FIBA team in the first place? Couldn't beat out Eric Gordon fer chrissake? This a a guy who was one of the 5 most terrifying players in the playoffs last year. Anyway, he didn't have a horrible game, but he just looked out of sorts some how. Weird.

I realized after Dino's post about the Heat a little while back, that I am, in fact, a hater. And the more I thought about it, I realized I have always been a Lebron hater. "Hate" in the street sense, of course. I don't actually HATE the guy. I just have always been skeptical, and almost always have been proven wrong. I really like the Free Darko Almanac piece about him, and I think maybe that's what turned me off a little. He has Jordan's dedication to business and himself in a way that feels a little hollow. I never got hooked into rooting for his improvement. But I also think it's something about me, that I can't really get behind obvious prodigy genius. I need someone to be a bit ragamuffin, to work harder, like choosing Beethoven over Mozart. I've always rooted for him to fail. There, my secrets out.

Commence the Delusion

Last night they had Lakers vs Warriors preseason on ESPN, and man was it fun! Incredible to see the difference without Nelson there. The most noticeable thing is the obvious chemistry and coherence on offense. They run all kinds of set plays with multiple options, the ball whipping around unselfishly. One caveat on that, of course, Monta was having an unbelievable game and was justified in just taking the ball himself several times. 27 points, 2 missed shots in the first half.

I was really impressed with David Lee, too. He has a really complimentary offensive game, great passer in the style of Webber, sweet shooting touch from outside, and banged inside for a couple post moves too. He and Monta had a couple great handoff/cut/bouncepass/layup moments that just dazzled the Lakers. Curry was sitting out with a mildly tweaked ankle, so it was Monta's show, and he didn't disappoint. A reminder to everyone (like me) who've crowned Curry as the new king of the Warriors. Oh yeah, that guy is pretty damn good.

last minute predictions

Regular season final standings (i think playoff predictions at the beginning of the reg season are a little insane)

East:
1. Chicago (#1 of my 3 'i'm so daring' picks)
2. Miami (a fair number of losses in the first half of season and a ton of wins in the second half)
3. Orlando
4. Boston (pacing themselves as usual)
5. Milwaukee
6. Atlanta
7. New York
8. Washington (it doesn't take more than wall, arenas and javale mcgee to get the 8th spot in the east)


West:
1. Lord Voldemort and the Death Eaters
2. Houston (#2 - scola will kick booty, two headed center miller/yao will be solid, backcourt dangerous, chemistry great, adelman COY)
3. OKC (maybe not as amazing as expected thru reg season, but come playoffs...)
4. San Antonio (one last gasp for spurs cuz parker will return to form for contract year)
5. Dallas
6. Portland
7. Sacramento (#3 - big mean frontcourt, with a shot blocker, a pissed off rookie sensation, and tyreke avoiding the soph slump because of the new help)
8. Phoenix

MVP: Howard
COY: Adelman
DPY: Lebron

Saddest game of the year: Toronto vs Cleveland this Friday night.

Superman and The Dream

Bill Simmons linked to this video, and a whole host of impressions cascaded over me:




First of all, I miss Hakeem! Watching him explain to Dwight, in a kind of muffled cryptology about some moves to try, he'd demonstrate them himself, and they're still shockingly sweet to watch. What he did with that dream shake is pretty tough to teach. He'd say something like "Dwight, you move your feet like this". And you'd think "Hunh, that doesn't sound like much, I bet I could even do that." And then he'd do it himself, and visions of David Robinson came twirling through my head. There just isn't any big man in the game like that any more. Dwight was being attentive, and even doing a good job of following direction, but he's like a big block of wood where Hakeem was a panther. It almost looked like he could fake a guy out by just rippling a pectoral muscle. And seeing the two of them together, Dwight joking, and then celebrating himself after a particularly nice move, you are reminded again of Hakeem's purity of presence on the court. Look at all the ex-stars of his era...Jordan mired in divorces, bad basketball management, a terrible hall of fame speech, gambling. Charles Barkley ballooning into a caricature of himself. Isaiah leaving paths of destruction and scandal through the Knicks, etc. Have we ever heard one bad or scandalous or even mildly annoying thing about Hakeem? Ever? The only quotes I remember are things like Mario Elie saying "Every guy in this locker room would walk through a brick wall for that guy."

Not to say Dwight is the ultimate contrast with him. Hakeem started out a bit of a hothead, and didn't become the devastating offensive player we know now until the second half of his career. Dwight isn't a hothead, but he's a goof. I imagine one or two more undressings by the Celtics or Lakers might cure him of that too. Or maybe he'll do his own DECISION and get everyone mad at him and then get mad and then we'll be mad cause now he's mad at us for being mad about him being mad and then use that anger to drive himself to greatness. Either way, it's hard to know if going to this camp with Hakeem signals a new dedication to the sport, but it was hard not to respect HIS respect for The Dream. And he did make some pretty sweet jumpers in that video. As I've always said, and I'm sure Hakeem pounded into his head, make three jumpers per game, and no one will ever be able to stop you again. That's what's so tantalizing and frustrating about that guy. He still gets 20 points, 13 rebounds basically with one arm tied behind his back.

I know you dislike Orlando, Dino, but I actually am always pulling for Dwight to evolve like Hakeem, because basically he's got the same team around him that Hakeem did. If he could play otherworldly like that, quadruple doubles and shit, they would have the perfect Rockets redux. The point guard who's not really a point guard. Three point shooters. Dirty work guys. Rashard Lewis is basically Robert Horry without quite the hops. Maybe after walking in the shadow of the dream, he'll have inhaled enough of the fumes of greatness to go there himself.

Also, by the way, Free Darko is doing an entire week of celebrating the '94-'95 Rockets! Each writer doing a different take on Hakeem's world. I haven't had a chance to plunge all the way through, but it's enough to make you drool...

The Heat are Ready

Courtesy of The Onion:

HURLBURT FIELD, FL—After two weeks of intense twice-a-day practices, sources within the Miami Heat organization are reporting that players are already in midseason pregame introduction form. "We spent the first week working on the basics, mostly running out of the tunnel, jumping into one another, and rocking back and forth in a big circle," said newly acquired forward Chris Bosh, still catching his breath Tuesday from a high-five/low-five drill. "But working with guys like LeBron [James] and Dwyane [Wade], it's amazing how quickly we got the feel for one another's preferences. Like just yesterday, Wade and I caught eyes in practice and I instinctively knew he was going to jump into the ring of us starters, and that we should all explode like he was a missile crashing into us." Bosh added that while the Heat is firing on all cylinders, team members are in no position to get complacent, as they could always find more ways to incorporate flames into the introduction.

 I have nothing else to add.

teams to watch this year, literally

i'm going to re-up my nba broadband season pass again this year, the one that lets you choose 7 teams. you get to see all their games that are not televised nationally or in your area. so now i'm in the process of choosing which seven teams, and it's no easy task. you have to kind of predict where the action is going to be, which teams will be fun to watch, possible developments, etc. last year i was stung by an injury - i chose the hornets and they lost chris paul. without paul there is nothing at all to see there. so there are potential hazards to try to avoid. the process of choosing forces you to make predictions about how the season is going to go. so here are my season predictions, tied to the teams i'm considering for my watch list:

1. uh. miami. haters can skip to #2. i boldly predict there will be some action and entertainment there.
how do i predict their performance? not having wade right now is pretty bad actually. they are going to lose that first game against boston, and possibly the next one against orlando. the chemistry is not there, not even close. but i boldly predict they'll be a good team and win lots of games. but meshing is going to be the dominant issue for the first half of season. it's already become lebron's team, and he's developing chemistry with bosh and others. how does wade fit into the offense and how will it feel for him to even have to fit in, this was his team for chrissakes!

2. thunder. another obvious choice. this was one that i made the mistake of not choosing last year, won't do that again. but the challenge now is predicting what will be the next surprise rise. (see #3)
i don't have any unique predictions about thunder, like most i think they are great but still a notch or two below lakers. i will say that in the mvp race i'm leaning towards dwight howard this year, tho it could be very close. it'll depend on wins. okc has tougher competition in the west, more tough games. orlando can crush everyone except a small handful of teams during the reg season. assuming howard ups his game and goes on a rampage, as i predict he will. this is van gundy's last season if howard and the team falter. this seemed like a good opportunity to talk about orlando, since i don't want them on my list, and i don't have anything interesting to say about the thunder.

3. sacto. my pick to be the surprise rise. at the very least they have players i want to see, and a kind of oddly intriguing combo: tyreke evans, a passed over and pissed off cousins, underestimated carl landry and dalembert. a loaded but unpredictable frontcourt, and tyreke in the backcourt. gotta see how that plays out.
could they maybe edge out phoenix for second in the pacific? i say yes, they could.

4. chicago. hesitating a little now after stupid boozer's ridiculous tumble. still, this is one of the big offseason developments and i want to see it play out, cuz they have mega potential. can't wait to see what rose can do surrounded with more offensive talent. i think they could nudge their way into the top three in the east, and join the ranks of mega teams. and rose is so damn fun to watch, this could be a team i end up rooting for.

5. wizards. slightly hesitant after arenas' naughty little boy behavior with he fake injury. what an adolescent dumbass! the danger now is that the wizards will be so sick of it that they make a desperate move to get rid of him. but provided they don't, another wild combo of players that could be really amazing to see. three guards, wall - arenas - hinrich, egads. and that javale guy could be great.
and i gotta say this is just one of a few small fast dynamic backcourts that i'm excited about this season. there's wiz, brooks and martin in houston, and monta and curry in oakland.

those five i'm pretty certain about, the next two spots are up for grabs.

6. new york? it could go either way for knicks, this is a little risky. and amare is injury prone. it could be disastrous. Or it could be really fun, the dantoni insanity, a lot of players that could blossom, amare on a mission to prove he's one of the greats with or without nash. plus there's always the possibility they pull some sort of blockbuster trade mid-season, then i'll really regret not choosing knicks. i need advice on this one.

7. houston? yao? it would be great to see him play again. if he can be yao again for 25 min/game, this could be the second best team in the west. luis scola was a superstar at fiba, that's gotta carry over and hopefully adelman will give him a bigger role. brooks and martin backcourt, fast and fearless, great scorers, but both featherweights physically, not great shooters. oh and brad miller now, sharing minutes with yao.

8. phoenix? how can i not choose phoenix? they've been fun every single year, except maybe the shaq year. for some reason i'm hesitant. they made really good moves to offset losing amare, yet something doesn't feel right with this lineup, and the age, nash and grant hill, hedo is 31, even richardson is 29. as much as i love nash, i don't think the force is with this team anymore, the momentum. does anyone on the team really think they have a chance to come out of the west? that might affect the level of effort and confidence this team has now. all the other western powers have some glimmer of hope that they could break thru. the window hasn't completely closed on spurs, dallas, houston, but it think it has with phoenix. so the question is can they still overachieve, again, and win 50+ games? maybe the lesson to be learned from amare going to new york will be twofold, how much nash meant to amare, but also how much amare meant to the suns.

other possibilities are milwaukee (but bogut may not healthy), portland (but actually they're kinda boring), grizzlies (up and coming talents, but they ranked 29th in assists, which means not fun to watch), and hornets, simply because i love to watch chris paul, but me thinks they're going to stink.
any suggestions or alternate top sevens? (can't choose warriors, they're blacked out)